Zachary Cohen dives into a first-round meeting between SMU and Penn State in the College Football Playoff on Saturday, December 21st.SMU Mustangs at Penn State Nittany Lions:
On Saturday, December 21st, the No. 6 Penn State Nittany Lions host the No. 11 SMU Mustangs at Beaver Stadium in University Park for the first round of the College Football Playoff. The winner of this game will take on the Boise State Broncos in the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl, and we can’t wait to see how it all plays out. So, keep reading for some SMU vs. Penn State odds, picks and predictions.College Football Playoff: SMU Mustangs at Penn State Nittany Lions (-8.5, 54)
Saturday, December 21st, 12:00 p.m. ETThere was a lot of talk about SMU slipping out of the College Football Playoff with a loss to Clemson in the ACC Championship Game. Given the fact that it was Alabama lurking, it’s easy to understand why. However, after a miserable first quarter, SMU rallied back and made that game extremely close. That helped the Mustangs prevent a 12 Angry Men scenario, as the committee made the easy decision to bump the Crimson Tide out of the field. Now, SMU will look to prove it was the right call by going out and playing a good game in Happy Valley.
For those thinking that the Nittany Lions will be able to bully the Mustangs in the trenches, you might be in for a bit of a surprise. SMU is tied for fourth in the nation in Rush EPA per play allowed (-0.105), and the team has some big bodies along the defensive line. If anything, the Mustangs are a little vulnerable over the top. Sure, they are 14th in the nation in Dropback EPA per play (-0.081), but we just saw Cade Klubnik and an above-average Clemson offense throw all over SMU. So, Drew Allar, who just threw for 226 yards and three touchdowns against Oregon, should be able to make some big throws in this game. He’s also a threat to make some big plays with his legs, as he’s 6-foot-5 and 240 pounds and has rushed for touchdowns in three straight games.
The battle between SMU’s offense and Penn State’s defense will be interesting. The Mustangs are just 39th in the nation in Rush EPA per play (0.037), while the Nittany Lions are sixth in college football in Rush EPA per play allowed (-0.101). That said, if SMU is going to get anything going on the ground, it will likely be with the legs of quarterback Kevin Jennings. He’s an electric runner, and Mustangs head coach Rhett Lashlee will want him on the move. You also can’t rule out SMU finding some success through the air. This is the ninth-ranked offense in Dropback EPA per play (0.123). However, Penn State is ninth in the nation in Dropback EPA per play allowed (-0.095). The Nittany Lions also have an elite edge rusher in Abdul Carter. He struggled to get home against the Ducks last week, but SMU’s offensive line isn’t the Oregon offensive line.
On paper, this looks like a strong matchup for Penn State. The Mustangs are also 2-5 against the spread as road underdogs under Lashlee, and the Nittany Lions are 13-4 ATS as home favorites of 7.5 to 14 points under James Franklin. For as many jokes there are to be made about Franklin, he generally takes care of business when Penn State is expected to do so.
It’s also pretty fair to expect some points. The Over was 8-5 in the 13 games the Mustangs played this year, and it has also hit in each of the last four games that the Nittany Lions have played. Also, while Penn State might be able to come away with more key stops than SMU, it’s hard to imagine the Nittany Lions completely shutting down Jennings and Co. We saw in the Mustangs loss to the Tigers that you can only keep this offense down for so long. And the Nittany Lions just put 37 on a good Ducks defense. Offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki will feel good about his team doing the same against the Ponies. That’s why my best bet for this one is on the Over at 53.5. I know a lot has been made about the Mustangs having to play in the cold, but it isn’t supposed to snow or anything. Both teams should be able to figure it out and find the end zone here.
Pick: Over 53.5 (-114)
